Russia–Ukraine War

CSIS warns that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach about 2 million by spring 2026, estimating roughly 1.2 million Russian casualties (including about 325,000 troop deaths) from February 2022–December 2025 and 500,000–600,000 Ukrainian casualties (including about 140,000 troop deaths). The report says Russian battlefield losses are roughly 2–2.5 times higher than Ukraine’s, Russian advances since January 2024 have averaged just 15–70 meters per day, and the high Russian casualty rate reflects failures in combined‑arms operations, poor training and tactics, corruption, low morale, Ukraine’s defense‑in‑depth and a deliberate Russian attrition strategy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russian attack drones struck a civilian passenger train in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on Tuesday, killing at least five people and injuring two, in what he called an 'act of terrorism' with no military justification. Ukrainian officials say three drones were used against the train, which was carrying more than 200 people; one drone hit a carriage with 18 passengers, and one person remains missing as war‑crime prosecutors document the scene. The strike came just after trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine and the United States, where Trump envoy Steve Witkoff described negotiations on ending the nearly four‑year war as 'very constructive' and said follow‑up meetings are planned this week. Even as talks continue, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving thousands in Kyiv without heat and power during winter and forcing crews from across the country to assist with repairs. The attack underscores the gap between diplomatic rhetoric and battlefield realities and will likely harden skepticism in Washington and Europe about Moscow’s good faith in any U.S.‑brokered deal.

Russia’s latest concentrated drone‑and‑missile barrages — which Kyiv and Western officials say included use of Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic/ballistic weapon — struck power and heating infrastructure across multiple regions, leaving roughly half of Kyiv’s apartment buildings without heat, cutting water and electricity amid subzero temperatures, killing and wounding civilians, shutting schools and driving residents to warming centers and generator‑powered “points of invincibility.” The attacks took place as U.S., Ukrainian and Russian envoys pressed a near‑final U.S. 20‑point peace framework (with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Russian interlocutors such as Kirill Dmitriev involved), with Kyiv and Washington saying most elements are agreed but territorial arrangements for Donbas, the fate of Zaporizhzhia and enforceable security guarantees remain the key unresolved sticking points; Moscow has framed some strikes as retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian drone attack that Kyiv and U.S. officials deny.

A Ukrainian official says President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will remain in Kyiv and not travel to Davos for a meeting with President Donald Trump, despite Trump telling World Economic Forum attendees he would see Zelenskyy 'later today' and then on Thursday. In his Davos speech and a follow‑up Q&A on Jan. 21, Trump said Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin would be 'stupid' if they do not soon reach a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine, while insisting 'we’re reasonably close to a deal' and announcing that envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner will meet Putin in Moscow on Thursday. Ukrainian officials had hoped the Davos encounter would produce signatures on two documents — one enshrining security arrangements for Ukraine in a peace framework, the other creating an $800 billion 'prosperity plan' for postwar reconstruction — but European governments balked at publicly rolling out the reconstruction package amid anger over Trump’s threats to acquire Greenland and his Gaza 'Board of Peace' scheme. Trump complained that at times Zelenskyy has refused U.S.–Russia deal terms and at other times Putin has walked away, calling it 'a very difficult balance' as he tries to sell himself as a dealmaker even while his rhetoric and unrelated territorial ambitions are undercutting allied support. For U.S. readers, the episode highlights both the high‑stakes diplomacy around Ukraine’s future and how Trump’s confrontational posture toward Europe is entangling efforts to lock in security guarantees and massive Western reconstruction funding.